Adobe

ADBE always been so close to the fang or magnificent 7 or any new trendy groupings of bigtech, but always on the outer circle, like the friend who watches from the fence of a farm birthday party.

ADBE’s growth been good, similar to home depot & google at times. It’s the premiere 2D company, owning most prominent creative/media softwares for film, tv & publishing. There’s extra diversification into analytics, advertising, & marketing spaces. Their growth seems good on some time stretches, but I noticed it may easily lose shareholder money due to the volatility that’s in some tech.

From 1986, it had at least 3 major crashes, and with the fervor of recent years tech industry, we can assume more frequent crashes. The max crash was 75%, and we just had a big crash last year. With a sharpe ratio of 0.58, sortino ratio of 0.98, it’s quite volatile. HD & GOOGL on the similar gains have lower volatility, it’s important for investors looking for stability, lower risk, while keeping tech growth. For trading maybe it’s more suitable if you can read the moves. Compared HD has 1.0 for sharpe ratio, and past fall of at most 33%.

However their numbers are quite good. Annually they almost doubled to 17bil revenue, straight rising. Income flatlined, maybe more investments. Earnings straight rising to $3.9 too. They skipped the August apocalypse, and report on 9/19. Everything’s rising & beat estimates, yet 2022 was a 60% crash.

Still a good stock, just need to wait on the recent fall. And longer term wait for recovery of $700 all time high, which it’s getting there. It’s fallen from 515. Can wait around 480 or 434. Price still above 50 ema, it fell pass 20 sma, and maybe ready to hit 50 sma around 500. 100 sma is quite far of, about 12% more fall after 50 sma. Hopefully that doesn’t happen but we just saw tech stocks lose 1/4 marketcap instantly, so that September earnings will be a volatility shake, and September prefers falling historically. Any mild beat and flat guidance won’t be enough for the current cautious market.